🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the period preceding former President Trump stated on January 3rd that Maduro had been apprehended. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the odds had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the social media post was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also profited significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. Proposed legislation introduced on recently seeks to ban public officials from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."