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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.